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Nifty 50 - ExpiryHello Traders, I hope you are doing good. This is a Nifty 50 Top Down Analysis. Share your thoughts. Thankyou and all the best! NOTE: The information provided here is only for educational purposes and is not intended to be any kind of financial, trading, or investment advice. Investment in the stock market is subject to market risk and trading in stocks, options or futures involves financial risk. Before taking a decision based on the analysis, it is advised that you consult your financial advisor and do your analysis. HAPPY TRADING.
NSE:NIFTY
by Iamlovish
BANK NIFTY heavyweights drag NIFTY in to a Red CloseNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -22-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17580.9 / 17610.45 / 17524 / 17546.65 H-L = 86 points VIX 16.49 / -0.18% FII DII: Not available till 1845h. May be flat to negative. SGX NIFTY at 1830h - 17587 +33points Likely open: Flat to mild positive. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart A mild gap-up open was immediately sold in to and then around 17530, buying stated and then the index was on a choppy ride for rest of the day. It was a very narrow range day - 86 points only. Late sell-off in BANK NIFTY dragged the index below P Close and ended the day just below 17550. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters RELIANCE 20 TECH MAHINDRA 10 TATA MOTORS 08 JSW STEEL 07 HINDALCO 05 TOTAL 50 The Draggers HDFC BANK 24 HDFC 22 ICICI BANK 18 NESTLE 08 KOTAK BANK 08 TOTAL 80 Lifter - Draggers = -30 POSITIVES RELIANCE and MARUTI also helped NIFTY. Despite NIFTY being choppy, RELIANCE was level-headed and that saved the day for NIFTY. 17500 levels were held on for the day despite severe selling in the banks. NIFTY made a higher high and a higher low. NEGATIVES BANK NIFTY easily gave up 37000 on a closing basis. Private banks were under severe pressure. HDFC is under serious selling pressure as every rise is sold in to. TRADING RANGE FOR 23-09-21 17300-17350 is now restored as the support line. Resistances at 17600-30-700. BANK NIFTY supports lines were breached so now the support line is redrawn as 36200-500. Resistances at 37000-200-500. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS HDFC BANK seems to have become the punching bag today as well. I now feel that the scrip would go up only late on Friday or next week. Tomorrow is the last day for Option Buyers to exit trades in Stock Options without attracting additional margins. This is what I have been observing for some time now - I myself being one such trader. NIFTY 17500 CE is now priced in line with the underlying. Usually, this should happen closer to the EOD on the weekly expiry day. The range for NIFTY was quite narrow and if someone was able to make even modest gains in CE / PE long, the person is quite good at picking the levels. BANK NIFTY and HDFC BANK charts look more or less similar on 5 minutes chart. I was trading both so I know. It was interesting to see how a scrip can move the index on its own weight. After 1515h, I could see that there was some adjustment in the Option prices of 37100 CE as even though BANK NIFTY went down and then recovered, the corresponding premium appreciated instead of going down. Most interestingly, even though the European markets are good green, our markets ended in the red. So will the indices play a catch-up game tomorrow? What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 22-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
And at last, Nifty ends the day above 17800!NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -05-10-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17661.35 H 17833.45 L 17640.90 C 17822.30 EOD +131.05 points / +0.74% CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart And finally, Nifty ended the day above 17800, registered a new ATH as well as a new ATH close. Nifty opened mildly gap-down and went into consolidation until FTSE opened and when it was trading in the green, Nifty started seeing traction and the resistance around 17715 was broken with a big candle on a 5-minute chart. And then there was no stopping Nifty as it scaled newer heights with ease. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 72 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 17 POSITIVES Nifty made a new ATH and also closed at a new ATH. Reliance ended above 2600 which is another ATH for the scrip and one of the main drivers for the rally in Nifty. Bank Nifty was showing signs of weakness in the AM session but the PM session saw Bank Nifty recovering in a smart manner. India VIX fell again indicating a lower probability of a big and wild swing. Hdfc twins ended in the green though they moved in a narrow range. NEGATIVES Icici Bank and Kotak Bank were responsible for not letting Bank Nifty freely. Bank Nifty underperformed to Nifty due to the above. Infosys could not close above 1700 and as long as it trades below the level, it has the tendency to drift towards 1660 which is likely to put pressure on Nifty. TRADING RANGE FOR 6-10-21 Nifty 17600-650 is now the new support line and resistances would be at 17850-900-950. Bank Nifty Support = 37200-400 Resistance 37800-38000-38200. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS Why do we feel happy whenever an index or a scrip hits a new ATH and or ends at a new ATH? It is the positivity factor - it releases a great deal of positivity which is required by traders/investors who have put in their hard-earned money in the markets either to make a living out of it and or to create wealth. Bank Nifty was not in its elements - this is the key for any further upside in Nifty. If it plays the catch-up game, Nifty may be able to hit 18000 during this week itself. Such is the power of Bank Nifty! What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 5-10-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:RELIANCELong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
1
Was this a staged Closing of the Indices?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -29-09-21 IN SUMMARY OHLC 17,657.95 17,781.75 17,608.15 17,711.30 Close = -37.3 / -0.21% H-L = 174 points VIX 18.84 / +1.61% FII DII: Data not available - likely to be negative. SGX NIFTY @1950h - 17683 / -23 points Likely open: Please read Insights at the end of the post. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart A strong gap-down of 90 points and then there was the usual bounce back to test the opening high and then a sell-off which threatened to go and breach 17600 levels but then came some active buying which resulted in the index recovering in a somewhat choppy way. It was only after 1300h that the index rallied and crossed 17750 and then came another sell-off which brought it below 17700 and then in a dramatic manner it was closed above 17700. The trading range was down by half than that of yesterday. NIFTY made a lower high, but a higher low and traded within the peak of yesterday’s close and yesterday’s lows. This is a consolidation before the monthly expiry. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS NIFTY LIFTERS NIFTY DRAGGERS SBI 18.00 HDFC 31.00 JSW STEEL 13.00 HDFC BANK 27.00 IOC 12.00 RELIANCE 21.00 POWERGRID 10.00 ICICI BANK 16.00 SUN PHARMA 10.00 KOTAK BANK 11.00 63.00 106.00 Lifter - Draggers = -43 POSITIVES NIFTY managed to close above 17700. NIFTY did not breach 17600 despite selling pressure and a retest attempt on the downside was made on multiple occasions. NEGATIVES When all the heavyweights go against the upward trend, there is going to be negativity and that is what spooked the indices. All key drivers were not in the mood to rise today and profit booking and or sell-off seems to have taken place ahead of expiry. VIX keeps rising indicating more wild moves. TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK: This remains as it is -- NIFTY 17500-18100 BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS As NIFTY was approaching its P Close at 17748, 17600 CE in which I was trading, also approached its P Close at 180. This is a rare coincidence that I have seen. Usually, Options tend to decay even during the day and here, 17600 CE remained intact despite a choppy AM session where the Index attempted to retest 17600 levels a couple of times and then showed weakness until about 1300h. However, on a closing basis, there is some variation in the NIFTY and the ITM CE deviation from the P Close. THis may be on account of the weighted average close. In my view, today’s close was staged as NIFTY topped out just around the closing highs of yesterday and from there it sold off to ensure that it ends below the P Close but above 17700. Despite FTSE up by 60 points, NIFTY ended in the red. This is surprising. Though FTSE and NIFTY cannot be compared but NIFTY should have ideally followed the cue and closed positive, but instead, it ended red and at 1925h, the SGX is showing -73 even when the US markets are in the green. Clearly, there is something that is beyond the ordinary eyes to see - i am carrying forward 17600 CE keeping global cues in mind and I could be completely wrong here but I going by what I believe is a mismatch. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 29-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTYLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Nifty rebounds in style but ends below 17800NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -07-10-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17810.55 H 17857.55 L 17763.80 C 17790.35 EOD +144.35 points /+-0.82% SGX Nifty @ 1735h 17847 / +25 points FII DII = It is a bit early for the data to be released. DIIs may have sold. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart A strong 150 point gap up opening and then it moved in a sideways range and as FTSE open neared, it headed higher but could not decisively cross 17850 even on a 5-minute chart for more than one candle. The expiry blues entered in the last hour and Nifty drifted towards 17800 and then broke the level as 17800 CE would have been written aggressively. It gave up most of the gains made during the day and closed below 17800. The daily chart indicates a Doji as the Open and Close prices were quite close. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 98 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 20 Net = +78 POSITIVES Auto and IT leaders took the lead and held Nifty higher. The supremacy was evident as even the HDFC twins could not drag Nifty as they may have liked to do. ICICI Bank closed above 700. Reliance held on to the greener zone. HDFC Bank held on to 1600 plus levels. NEGATIVES HDFC ended in red and is finding it hard to sustain closings above 2750. Except for ICICI Bank, all leading banks ended in the red and that is what prevented Bank Nifty from attempting a hit to 38000. TRADING RANGE FOR 8-10-21 Nifty 17600-650-700 is the support base. Resistance regrettably is at every nook and corner of the charts starting from 17800-820-850-900. Bank Nifty Support = 37200-400 appears to be a good support area. Resistance 37800-38000-38200. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS If you closely look at the OHLC numbers and intraday charts of the indices, you would realize that the moves for the day were such that they negated what happened yesterday. The indices are just around the levels where they were on EOD 5-10-21. This means that we are still not out of the woods. Tomorrow is the RBI policy so there may be some jerks experienced, however, in he recent times, the announcements have become a non-event. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 7-10-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
1
The Good Run comes to an end -Indices slip big time as Vix spikeNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 28-10-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 18187.65 H 18190.70 L 17799.45 C 17857.25 EOD - -353.70 points / -1.94% India VIX = 17.91 / +6.42% SGX Nifty 28-10-21 1930h = +58 points FII DII = Not yet updated CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened with a mild gap down and then continued its downward journey till the series expired amidst increasing volatility. In the process, Nifty breached all crucial supports and ended the day at 17857 which was around the Fibonacci level of 61.8%. This is one of the biggest falls in recent weeks despite the global cues not being very weak. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 18 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 169 Net = -151 POSITIVES The only saving grace was that Nifty ended above 17800 and Bank Nifty above 39500. The charts and the stock prices have been thrown in complete disarray and many leading scrips have lost key support levels so we have to see where the indices end tomorrow. NEGATIVES There will be a long list of negatives if I start writing. However, there are 2 key negatives that I am listing: Nifty broke the 18000 psych level very easily. In the same manner, Bank Nifty broke 40500 and then 40000 and almost broke 39500 with effortless ease. The free fall in the indices is a cause of concern as we head into the festive days. This time, the indices seem to be ready to spring some surprises! I wish these turn out to be good for the majority. TRADING RANGE FOR 29 October 2021 Looking at the violent and long-range moves today, I am avoiding stating any levels for tomorrow and would wait for the week to end before drawing up the lines. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS 40900 PE low for the day was 167 40900 PE ended the day at 1388 Even with 1 lot at risk, the return would have been at max 700%+!! 18200 PE low for the day 52 EOD = 344 Even with 1 lot at risk, the return would have been at max 600%+!! If you follow Fibonacci Retracements, you would be interested in having a look at this tweet posted a few minutes back: What do you feel about this? Here is the video link -- Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 28-10-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
2
NIFTY 50 - MONDAY 20-03-23In the last few days, the Nifty50 has found support near 16800 and has risen to 17123. The hourly chart shows that Nifty's support level is around 16985-86. So, I'll keep my long position until the Nifty crosses 17000. According to my forecast, the index will reach 17250 within the next few days. The SGX Nifty is down significantly on Friday. The market is expected to open lower on Monday. However, it is an opportunity for swing traders to open a new long position. This video is for educational purposes only. Please make any investment decisions after consulting with your SEBI Registered Analyst or advisor.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by UnknownUnicorn39322609